Hartberg
Sturm Graz
The model leans Sturm Graz at 37%. Expected goals: Hartberg 1.07, Sturm Graz 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Hartberg won 3 of their last 6; Sturm Graz won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hartberg | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Sturm Graz | 40% | 2.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sturm Graz. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hartberg 0| Hartberg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.