Rapid Wien
Sturm Graz
The model leans Sturm Graz at 42%. Expected goals: Rapid Wien 0.95, Sturm Graz 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Rapid Wien won 3 of their last 6; Sturm Graz won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rapid Wien | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Sturm Graz | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sturm Graz. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.95 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.6%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sturm Graz −0.5| Rapid Wien line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 17% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.