Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz
The model leans Fenerbahçe at 60%. Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.26, Sturm Graz 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Fenerbahçe won 5 of their last 6; Sturm Graz won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fenerbahçe | 67% | 1.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Sturm Graz | 13% | 7.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fenerbahçe. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–08.1%
- 3–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fenerbahçe −1.5| Fenerbahçe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.