LASK
Fenerbahçe
The model leans Fenerbahçe at 51%. Expected goals: LASK 1.43, Fenerbahçe 2.26. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%. LASK won 6 of their last 6; Fenerbahçe won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1LASK | 23% | 4.35 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Fenerbahçe | 55% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fenerbahçe. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 2.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–26.4%
- 2–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fenerbahçe −1| LASK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 13% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 20% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 21% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.