Predictions · Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Austria Wien

02
Won

LASK

The model leans LASK at 50%. Expected goals: Austria Wien 1.58, LASK 2.25. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%. Austria Wien won 1 of their last 6; LASK won 6 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Austria Wien26%3.82
XDraw22%4.61
2LASK52%1.92

Pick: LASK. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.58 – 2.25
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.574%26%
3.553%47%
Both teams to scoreYes71%No29%

Most likely scores

  • 128.7%
  • 117.7%
  • 226.9%
  • 136.5%
  • 216.1%
  • 025.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: LASK −0.5
Austria Wien lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.513%87%
-113%14%73%
-0.527%73%
027%20%53%
+0.547%53%
+147%21%32%
+1.568%32%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.