Salzburg
Austria Wien
The model leans Salzburg at 53%. Expected goals: Salzburg 2.20, Austria Wien 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%. Salzburg won 5 of their last 6; Austria Wien won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Salzburg | 60% | 1.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.61 | – | – | – |
| 2Austria Wien | 19% | 5.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Salzburg. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.20 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–17.1%
- 3–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Salzburg −1| Salzburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 22% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 20% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.