Predictions · Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Wolfsberger AC

11
Lost

Salzburg

The model leans Salzburg at 38%. Expected goals: Wolfsberger AC 1.15, Salzburg 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Wolfsberger AC won 2 of their last 6; Salzburg won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Wolfsberger AC30%3.34
XDraw29%3.44
2Salzburg41%2.44

Pick: Salzburg. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.15 – 1.39
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.6%
  • 0110.9%
  • 109.1%
  • 128.8%
  • 007.9%
  • 027.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Wolfsberger AC 0
Wolfsberger AC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.513%87%
-113%19%69%
-0.531%69%
031%27%42%
+0.558%42%
+158%22%20%
+1.580%20%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.