Predictions · Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Grazer AK

00
Lost

Wolfsberger AC

The model leans Grazer AK at 42%. Expected goals: Grazer AK 1.46, Wolfsberger AC 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Grazer AK won 2 of their last 6; Wolfsberger AC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Grazer AK45%2.21
XDraw29%3.48
2Wolfsberger AC26%3.83

Pick: Grazer AK. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.06
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.546%54%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes50%No50%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.5%
  • 1011.8%
  • 219.1%
  • 208.6%
  • 018.5%
  • 008.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Grazer AK −0.5
Grazer AK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.523%77%
-123%24%54%
-0.546%54%
046%26%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%17%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.