Predictions · Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Austria Lustenau

21
Won

Wolfsberger AC

The model leans Austria Lustenau at 41%. Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 1.32, Wolfsberger AC 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Austria Lustenau won 2 of their last 6; Wolfsberger AC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Austria Lustenau44%2.25
XDraw31%3.26
2Wolfsberger AC25%4.00

Pick: Austria Lustenau. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.93
LineOverUnder
1.566%34%
2.539%61%
3.519%81%
Both teams to scoreYes44%No56%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.9%
  • 1112.9%
  • 0010.6%
  • 019.8%
  • 209.2%
  • 218.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Austria Lustenau −0.5
Austria Lustenau lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.521%79%
-121%24%54%
-0.546%54%
046%28%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%17%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.