Predictions · League 278 · outside model coverage
Kremser SC
0–1
Won
Austria Lustenau
The model leans Austria Lustenau at 34%. Expected goals: Kremser SC 0.77, Austria Lustenau 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 66%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match27
36
37
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kremser SC | 27% | 3.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Austria Lustenau | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Austria Lustenau. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.77 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.1%
- 0–117.1%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kremser SC 0| Kremser SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 20% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 34% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.