Grazer AK
Austria Lustenau
The model leans Grazer AK at 38%. Expected goals: Grazer AK 1.35, Austria Lustenau 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Grazer AK won 2 of their last 6; Austria Lustenau won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Grazer AK | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Austria Lustenau | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Grazer AK. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Grazer AK 0| Grazer AK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 22% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.