Predictions · League 278 · outside model coverage
SR Donaufeld
0–4
Won
Grazer AK
The model leans Grazer AK at 75%. Expected goals: SR Donaufeld 0.76, Grazer AK 3.97. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match90
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SR Donaufeld | 3% | 34.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 7% | 14.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Grazer AK | 90% | 1.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Grazer AK. Calibrated probability 75% (raw model output 90%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 97%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 3.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 69% | 31% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 0–39.4%
- 0–49.3%
- 0–57.4%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–27.1%
- 1–47.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Grazer AK −2| SR Donaufeld line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 2% | 97% |
| -0.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| 0 | 3% | 7% | 90% |
| +0.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| +1 | 10% | 12% | 78% |
| +1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.