Predictions · League 278 · outside model coverage

SR Donaufeld

04
Won

Grazer AK

The model leans Grazer AK at 75%. Expected goals: SR Donaufeld 0.76, Grazer AK 3.97. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 52%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1SR Donaufeld3%34.84
XDraw7%14.43
2Grazer AK90%1.11

Pick: Grazer AK. Calibrated probability 75% (raw model output 90%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 97%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.76 – 3.97
LineOverUnder
1.595%5%
2.585%15%
3.569%31%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 039.4%
  • 049.3%
  • 057.4%
  • 137.1%
  • 027.1%
  • 147.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Grazer AK −2
SR Donaufeld lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.51%99%
-11%2%97%
-0.53%97%
03%7%90%
+0.510%90%
+110%12%78%
+1.522%78%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.