Ried
Grazer AK
The model leans Ried at 32%. Expected goals: Ried 1.22, Grazer AK 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Ried won 2 of their last 6; Grazer AK won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ried | 36% | 2.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| 2Grazer AK | 34% | 2.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ried. Calibrated probability 32% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ried 0| Ried line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 20% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.