Mjällby
Salzburg
The model leans Mjällby at 60%. Expected goals: Mjällby 1.96, Salzburg 0.66. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 57%. Mjällby won 1 of their last 6; Salzburg won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mjällby | 67% | 1.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Salzburg | 11% | 9.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mjällby. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.96 – 0.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.2%
- 2–013.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.1%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mjällby −1| Mjällby line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.