Mjällby
Elfsborg
The model leans Mjällby at 63%. Expected goals: Mjällby 2.06, Elfsborg 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 62%. Mjällby won 1 of their last 6; Elfsborg won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mjällby | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Elfsborg | 8% | 12.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mjällby. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.06 – 0.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 2–015.5%
- 1–015.1%
- 3–010.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 47% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mjällby −1.5| Mjällby line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 25% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.