Elfsborg
Sirius
The model leans Sirius at 53%. Expected goals: Elfsborg 1.21, Sirius 2.28. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%. Elfsborg won 4 of their last 6; Sirius won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Elfsborg | 18% | 5.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Sirius | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sirius. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 2.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.4%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–16.9%
- 0–36.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sirius −1| Elfsborg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 12% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 19% | 61% |
| +0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| +1 | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.