Sirius
Malmö FF
The model leans Sirius at 62%. Expected goals: Sirius 2.98, Malmö FF 1.33. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 70%. Sirius won 2 of their last 6; Malmö FF won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sirius | 70% | 1.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Malmö FF | 14% | 7.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sirius. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.98 – 1.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.0%
- 3–06.0%
- 4–15.9%
- 1–15.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sirius −1.5| Sirius line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 19% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 15% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.