Brommapojkarna
Malmö FF
The model leans Brommapojkarna at 38%. Expected goals: Brommapojkarna 1.81, Malmö FF 1.65. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. Brommapojkarna won 2 of their last 6; Malmö FF won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brommapojkarna | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Malmö FF | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brommapojkarna. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 1.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
- 0–15.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brommapojkarna 0| Brommapojkarna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 20% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.