Brommapojkarna
Örgryte
The model leans Brommapojkarna at 55%. Expected goals: Brommapojkarna 2.33, Örgryte 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%. Brommapojkarna won 2 of their last 6; Örgryte won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brommapojkarna | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.90 | – | – | – |
| 2Örgryte | 16% | 6.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brommapojkarna. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.33 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brommapojkarna −1| Brommapojkarna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.