Predictions · Allsvenskan · outside model coverage

Örgryte

11
Lost

Halmstads BK

The model leans Örgryte at 40%. Expected goals: Örgryte 1.49, Halmstads BK 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Örgryte won 2 of their last 6; Halmstads BK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Örgryte43%2.34
XDraw28%3.57
2Halmstads BK29%3.42

Pick: Örgryte. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.49 – 1.19
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.550%50%
3.528%72%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.2%
  • 1010.2%
  • 219.0%
  • 018.2%
  • 207.6%
  • 127.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 14% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Örgryte −0.5
Örgryte lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%22%56%
-0.544%56%
044%26%30%
+0.570%30%
+170%18%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.