Örgryte
Halmstads BK
The model leans Örgryte at 40%. Expected goals: Örgryte 1.49, Halmstads BK 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Örgryte won 2 of their last 6; Halmstads BK won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Örgryte | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Halmstads BK | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Örgryte. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 14% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Örgryte −0.5| Örgryte line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.