Halmstads BK
Kalmar FF
The model leans Kalmar FF at 40%. Expected goals: Halmstads BK 1.00, Kalmar FF 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%. Halmstads BK won 2 of their last 6; Kalmar FF won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Halmstads BK | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Kalmar FF | 44% | 2.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kalmar FF. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.00 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–28.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kalmar FF −0.5| Halmstads BK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.