Predictions · Allsvenskan · outside model coverage

Halmstads BK

10
Lost

Kalmar FF

The model leans Kalmar FF at 40%. Expected goals: Halmstads BK 1.00, Kalmar FF 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%. Halmstads BK won 2 of their last 6; Kalmar FF won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Halmstads BK26%3.78
XDraw30%3.33
2Kalmar FF44%2.29

Pick: Kalmar FF. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.00 – 1.35
LineOverUnder
1.568%32%
2.542%58%
3.521%79%
Both teams to scoreYes47%No53%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.9%
  • 0112.8%
  • 109.5%
  • 009.5%
  • 128.7%
  • 028.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kalmar FF −0.5
Halmstads BK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%18%72%
-0.528%72%
028%27%45%
+0.555%45%
+155%24%21%
+1.579%21%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.