Predictions · Allsvenskan · outside model coverage

Häcken

11
Lost

Kalmar FF

The model leans Häcken at 51%. Expected goals: Häcken 1.91, Kalmar FF 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. Häcken won 3 of their last 6; Kalmar FF won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Häcken57%1.75
XDraw24%4.14
2Kalmar FF19%5.38

Pick: Häcken. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.91 – 1.01
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.533%67%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.4%
  • 1010.3%
  • 219.9%
  • 209.8%
  • 316.3%
  • 306.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Häcken −1
Häcken lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.534%66%
-134%24%42%
-0.558%42%
058%22%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%13%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.