Kalmar FF
Hammarby
The model leans Hammarby at 50%. Expected goals: Kalmar FF 1.11, Hammarby 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Kalmar FF won 1 of their last 6; Hammarby won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kalmar FF | 21% | 4.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Hammarby | 54% | 1.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–36.1%
- 2–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby −0.5| Kalmar FF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.