AIK
Hammarby
The model leans Hammarby at 51%. Expected goals: AIK 1.23, Hammarby 2.14. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 63%. AIK won 4 of their last 6; Hammarby won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AIK | 20% | 4.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Hammarby | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 2.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby −1| AIK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 13% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.