Djurgården
AIK
The model leans Djurgården at 63%. Expected goals: Djurgården 2.73, AIK 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 60%. Djurgården won 4 of their last 6; AIK won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Djurgården | 73% | 1.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.08 | – | – | – |
| 2AIK | 11% | 9.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Djurgården. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.73 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.0%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–18.2%
- 3–08.0%
- 1–16.6%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Djurgården −1.5| Djurgården line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| -1 | 53% | 21% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.