Djurgården
Västerås SK
The model leans Djurgården at 60%. Expected goals: Djurgården 2.76, Västerås SK 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 70%. Djurgården won 4 of their last 6; Västerås SK won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Djurgården | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Västerås SK | 16% | 6.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Djurgården. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.76 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.1%
- 1–16.1%
- 2–25.8%
- 3–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Djurgården −1.5| Djurgården line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 20% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 17% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 10% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.