Malmö FF
Djurgården
The model leans Djurgården at 50%. Expected goals: Malmö FF 1.48, Djurgården 2.20. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. Malmö FF won 4 of their last 6; Djurgården won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Malmö FF | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Djurgården | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Djurgården. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 2.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.0%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.6%
- 0–26.1%
- 2–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Djurgården −0.5| Malmö FF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 14% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 20% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 21% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.