Västerås SK
Djurgården
The model leans Djurgården at 50%. Expected goals: Västerås SK 1.67, Djurgården 2.27. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%. Västerås SK won 3 of their last 6; Djurgården won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Västerås SK | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Djurgården | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Djurgården. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 2.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.4%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–36.3%
- 2–16.2%
- 2–35.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Djurgården −0.5| Västerås SK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 15% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 20% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.