Elfsborg
Västerås SK
The model leans Västerås SK at 38%. Expected goals: Elfsborg 1.54, Västerås SK 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 66%. Elfsborg won 4 of their last 6; Västerås SK won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Elfsborg | 34% | 2.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Västerås SK | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Västerås SK. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
- 1–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Elfsborg 0| Elfsborg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 18% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.