Malmö FF
Elfsborg
The model leans Malmö FF at 50%. Expected goals: Malmö FF 1.86, Elfsborg 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. Malmö FF won 4 of their last 6; Elfsborg won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Malmö FF | 51% | 1.95 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Elfsborg | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Malmö FF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.86 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–16.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Malmö FF −0.5| Malmö FF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 23% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.