Piteå
AIK
The model leans AIK at 61%. Expected goals: Piteå 1.29, AIK 2.85. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 69%. Piteå won 0 of their last 6; AIK won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Piteå | 14% | 7.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.96 | – | – | – |
| 2AIK | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: AIK. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 2.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.4%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–26.5%
- 0–36.1%
- 1–15.9%
- 1–45.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AIK −1.5| Piteå line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 9% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 16% | 70% |
| +0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| +1 | 30% | 20% | 50% |
| +1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.