Piteå
Vasalunds IF
The model leans Vasalunds IF at 51%. Expected goals: Piteå 1.88, Vasalunds IF 2.79. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 80%. Piteå won 0 of their last 6; Vasalunds IF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Piteå | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Vasalunds IF | 57% | 1.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vasalunds IF. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.88 – 2.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% |
| Both teams to score | Yes80% | No20% |
Most likely scores
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–14.9%
- 2–14.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vasalunds IF −1| Piteå line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 13% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 18% | 57% |
| +0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| +1 | 43% | 19% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.