Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

Vasalunds IF

43
Won

IFK Stocksund

The model leans Vasalunds IF at 68%. Expected goals: Vasalunds IF 4.17, IFK Stocksund 1.85. Over 2.5 goals 94%, both teams to score 83%. Vasalunds IF won 2 of their last 6; IFK Stocksund won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vasalunds IF77%1.30
XDraw11%8.83
2IFK Stocksund12%8.53

Pick: Vasalunds IF. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 89%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 4.17 – 1.85
LineOverUnder
1.598%2%
2.594%6%
3.585%15%
Both teams to scoreYes83%No17%

Most likely scores

  • 415.8%
  • 315.6%
  • 425.4%
  • 325.2%
  • 514.8%
  • 524.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 73% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vasalunds IF −2
Vasalunds IF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.561%39%
-161%15%23%
-0.577%23%
077%11%12%
+0.588%12%
+188%7%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.