Gefle
IFK Stocksund
The model leans Gefle at 51%. Expected goals: Gefle 3.14, IFK Stocksund 2.17. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 85%. Gefle won 4 of their last 6; IFK Stocksund won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gefle | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.85 | – | – | – |
| 2IFK Stocksund | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gefle. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.14 – 2.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 2.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 77% | 23% |
| Both teams to score | Yes85% | No15% |
Most likely scores
- 3–26.0%
- 2–25.8%
- 3–15.6%
- 2–15.3%
- 4–24.7%
- 3–34.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gefle −1| Gefle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 18% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 17% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 12% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.