Karlbergs BK
IFK Stocksund
The model leans Karlbergs BK at 56%. Expected goals: Karlbergs BK 3.53, IFK Stocksund 2.10. Over 2.5 goals 92%, both teams to score 85%. Karlbergs BK won 3 of their last 6; IFK Stocksund won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Karlbergs BK | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.61 | – | – | – |
| 2IFK Stocksund | 20% | 4.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Karlbergs BK. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.53 – 2.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 98% | 2% |
| 2.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 81% | 19% |
| Both teams to score | Yes85% | No15% |
Most likely scores
- 3–25.9%
- 3–15.6%
- 4–25.2%
- 2–25.0%
- 4–14.9%
- 2–14.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Karlbergs BK −1.5| Karlbergs BK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 17% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 15% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 10% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.