Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

Karlbergs BK

20
Won

IFK Stocksund

The model leans Karlbergs BK at 56%. Expected goals: Karlbergs BK 3.53, IFK Stocksund 2.10. Over 2.5 goals 92%, both teams to score 85%. Karlbergs BK won 3 of their last 6; IFK Stocksund won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Karlbergs BK65%1.54
XDraw15%6.61
2IFK Stocksund20%4.97

Pick: Karlbergs BK. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.53 – 2.10
LineOverUnder
1.598%2%
2.592%8%
3.581%19%
Both teams to scoreYes85%No15%

Most likely scores

  • 325.9%
  • 315.6%
  • 425.2%
  • 225.0%
  • 414.9%
  • 214.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Karlbergs BK −1.5
Karlbergs BK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.547%53%
-147%17%35%
-0.565%35%
065%15%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%10%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.