Hammarby TFF
Karlbergs BK
The model leans Hammarby TFF at 67%. Expected goals: Hammarby TFF 3.00, Karlbergs BK 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 63%. Hammarby TFF won 2 of their last 6; Karlbergs BK won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hammarby TFF | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Karlbergs BK | 10% | 10.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby TFF. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.00 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–07.8%
- 4–16.2%
- 4–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 66% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby TFF −2| Hammarby TFF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| -1 | 57% | 19% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.