Karlbergs BK
Hammarby TFF
The model leans Hammarby TFF at 54%. Expected goals: Karlbergs BK 1.30, Hammarby TFF 2.46. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 67%. Karlbergs BK won 3 of their last 6; Hammarby TFF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Karlbergs BK | 18% | 5.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Hammarby TFF | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby TFF. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.30 – 2.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.2%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–26.0%
- 0–35.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby TFF −1| Karlbergs BK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 11% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 18% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 21% | 42% |
| +1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.