Karlbergs BK
IK Brage
The model leans IK Brage at 50%. Expected goals: Karlbergs BK 1.82, IK Brage 2.48. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%. Karlbergs BK won 3 of their last 6; IK Brage won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Karlbergs BK | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.93 | – | – | – |
| 2IK Brage | 52% | 1.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: IK Brage. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 2.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes77% | No23% |
Most likely scores
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.3%
- 1–16.1%
- 2–35.7%
- 2–15.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IK Brage −0.5| Karlbergs BK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 14% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 19% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 19% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.