Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

IFK Norrköping

30
Won

IK Brage

The model leans IFK Norrköping at 50%. Expected goals: IFK Norrköping 2.04, IK Brage 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%. IFK Norrköping won 6 of their last 6; IK Brage won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1IFK Norrköping55%1.83
XDraw23%4.31
2IK Brage22%4.54

Pick: IFK Norrköping. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.04 – 1.25
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.564%36%
3.542%58%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 219.7%
  • 119.5%
  • 207.8%
  • 107.6%
  • 316.6%
  • 226.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: IFK Norrköping −1
IFK Norrköping lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%22%44%
-0.556%44%
056%21%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%14%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.