Falkenbergs FF
IK Brage
The model leans Falkenbergs FF at 51%. Expected goals: Falkenbergs FF 2.33, IK Brage 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 69%. Falkenbergs FF won 2 of their last 6; IK Brage won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Falkenbergs FF | 57% | 1.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.75 | – | – | – |
| 2IK Brage | 22% | 4.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Falkenbergs FF. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.33 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–06.4%
- 2–26.4%
- 1–05.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Falkenbergs FF −1| Falkenbergs FF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 21% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 20% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.