IK Brage
Falkenbergs FF
The model leans Falkenbergs FF at 39%. Expected goals: IK Brage 1.72, Falkenbergs FF 1.91. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 71%. IK Brage won 1 of their last 6; Falkenbergs FF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IK Brage | 35% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.26 | – | – | – |
| 2Falkenbergs FF | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Falkenbergs FF. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 1.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.3%
- 0–15.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IK Brage 0| IK Brage line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 18% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 22% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 19% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.