Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

Falkenbergs FF

20
Won

Norrby

The model leans Falkenbergs FF at 50%. Expected goals: Falkenbergs FF 2.13, Norrby 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%. Falkenbergs FF won 2 of their last 6; Norrby won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Falkenbergs FF54%1.87
XDraw23%4.44
2Norrby24%4.19

Pick: Falkenbergs FF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.13 – 1.39
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.568%32%
3.547%53%
Both teams to scoreYes66%No34%

Most likely scores

  • 219.3%
  • 118.8%
  • 206.7%
  • 316.6%
  • 226.5%
  • 106.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Falkenbergs FF −0.5
Falkenbergs FF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%22%46%
-0.554%46%
054%21%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%14%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.