Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
IFK Skövde FK
2–2
Lost
Falkenbergs FF
The model leans Falkenbergs FF at 68%. Expected goals: IFK Skövde FK 0.83, Falkenbergs FF 2.77. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match15
77
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IFK Skövde FK | 8% | 12.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Falkenbergs FF | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Falkenbergs FF. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 2.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.5%
- 0–39.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–17.6%
- 0–46.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Falkenbergs FF −2| IFK Skövde FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 6% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 14% | 78% |
| +0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| +1 | 22% | 20% | 57% |
| +1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.