IFK Norrköping
Falkenbergs FF
The model leans IFK Norrköping at 39%. Expected goals: IFK Norrköping 1.49, Falkenbergs FF 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. IFK Norrköping won 6 of their last 6; Falkenbergs FF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IFK Norrköping | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Falkenbergs FF | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: IFK Norrköping. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 44% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IFK Norrköping 0| IFK Norrköping line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.