Vasalunds IF
IFK Norrköping
The model leans IFK Norrköping at 46%. Expected goals: Vasalunds IF 1.38, IFK Norrköping 1.89. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. Vasalunds IF won 2 of their last 6; IFK Norrköping won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vasalunds IF | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2IFK Norrköping | 48% | 2.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: IFK Norrköping. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IFK Norrköping −0.5| Vasalunds IF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 22% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 22% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.