Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

Vasalunds IF

11
Lost

Sollentuna FK

The model leans Vasalunds IF at 50%. Expected goals: Vasalunds IF 1.93, Sollentuna FK 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Vasalunds IF won 2 of their last 6; Sollentuna FK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vasalunds IF55%1.82
XDraw24%4.15
2Sollentuna FK21%4.76

Pick: Vasalunds IF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.93 – 1.13
LineOverUnder
1.581%19%
2.559%41%
3.537%63%
Both teams to scoreYes58%No42%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.2%
  • 219.9%
  • 109.1%
  • 208.7%
  • 316.3%
  • 125.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vasalunds IF −1
Vasalunds IF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%23%44%
-0.556%44%
056%22%22%
+0.578%22%
+178%14%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.