Sollentuna FK
IF Karlstad
The model leans IF Karlstad at 47%. Expected goals: Sollentuna FK 0.70, IF Karlstad 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%. Sollentuna FK won 2 of their last 6; IF Karlstad won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sollentuna FK | 19% | 5.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
| 2IF Karlstad | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: IF Karlstad. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.70 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.7%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–27.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IF Karlstad −0.5| Sollentuna FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 15% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 29% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.