Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

IF Karlstad

02
Lost

Assyriska FF

The model leans IF Karlstad at 63%. Expected goals: IF Karlstad 2.29, Assyriska FF 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. IF Karlstad won 2 of their last 6; Assyriska FF won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1IF Karlstad72%1.39
XDraw19%5.33
2Assyriska FF9%10.71

Pick: IF Karlstad. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.29 – 0.72
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.558%42%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 2012.9%
  • 1011.3%
  • 309.8%
  • 219.3%
  • 118.2%
  • 317.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: IF Karlstad −1.5
IF Karlstad lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.549%51%
-149%24%27%
-0.573%27%
073%17%10%
+0.590%10%
+190%7%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.