Assyriska FF
Gefle
The model leans Assyriska FF at 41%. Expected goals: Assyriska FF 2.04, Gefle 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 73%. Assyriska FF won 5 of their last 6; Gefle won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Assyriska FF | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Gefle | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Assyriska FF. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.04 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 3–15.6%
- 3–24.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Assyriska FF −0.5| Assyriska FF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 20% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 21% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 17% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.