Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

FBK Karlstad

02
Lost

Assyriska FF

The model leans FBK Karlstad at 61%. Expected goals: FBK Karlstad 2.16, Assyriska FF 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%. FBK Karlstad won 3 of their last 6; Assyriska FF won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FBK Karlstad69%1.45
XDraw20%4.92
2Assyriska FF11%9.35

Pick: FBK Karlstad. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.16 – 0.75
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.555%45%
3.533%67%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 2012.8%
  • 1011.8%
  • 219.5%
  • 309.2%
  • 118.8%
  • 316.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FBK Karlstad −1.5
FBK Karlstad lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.546%54%
-146%24%30%
-0.570%30%
070%19%12%
+0.588%12%
+188%8%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.